Overview of the Turkey Flat Ground Motion Prediction Experiment
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by Charles R. Real, Anthony F. Shakal and Brian E. Tucker
Real, Charles R., Anthony F. Shakal and Brian E. Tucker (2006). Overview of the Turkey Flat Ground Motion Prediction Experiment. SMIP06
Seminar on Utilization of Strong-Motion Data, p. 117 - 136.
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Abstract
Recognizing the wide variability of methods and often conflicting results of seismic response analyses used
for design and construction in the early 1980’s, the California Geological Survey (CGS) established the Turkey
Flat Site Effects Test Area in 1987, and within two years a blind test was conducted to predict the test
area’s low-strain seismic response. Test results focused on the need to reduce uncertainties in the
geotechnical parameters that drive site response codes. Fifteen years later, the array recorded the September
28, 2004 M6.0 Parkfield Earthquake at a fault-rupture distance of only 5 km. A blind test has been conducted
to evaluate the ability of current practice to determine the test area’s moderate-strain seismic response.
This paper provides an overview of the Turkey Flat test site, and describes the rationale for what has become
an evolving blind test experiment.
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