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SACRAMENTO - The last
time two California teams met in the
World Series, the action caused by the
San Andreas Fault overshadowed the
action on the field.
The Oakland A’s swept
the San Francisco Giants in the 1989
Series, but the celebration was subdued.
Just before the start of Game 3 on
October 17, a magnitude 6.9 earthquake
with an epicenter about 60 miles south
of San Francisco struck.
The San Francisco
Giants and Anaheim Angels will open this
year’s World Series on Saturday in
Anaheim. It’s the first time since 1989
that two California teams have met in
the Series.
Is that an omen? How
likely is a big earthquake during the
2002 World Series?
The odds of the Tampa
Bay Devil Rays meeting the Milwaukee
Brewers in next year’s Series are
probably greater than the odds of a
seismic interruption this year,
according to scientists from the
California Department of Conservation.
“The odds of a major
earthquake occurring in a particular
location during a specific two-week
window are astronomically low,” said DOC
Director Darryl Young. “Both the Giants’
and Angels’ ballparks are very close to
major faults, but we stress being
prepared over worrying. Our scientists
and their colleagues from the USGS and
academic institutions work with the
engineering and planning communities to
ensure that we are as ready as possible
should an earthquake strike.”
Casual baseball fans
may not recall that Dave Stewart was the
MVP of the ’89 Series -- which was
delayed 10 days by the Loma Prieta
earthquake -- but they probably remember
some of the devastation caused by the
quake: part of the upper deck of the Bay
Bridge collapsing into the lower deck, a
section of the Nimitz Freeway in Oakland
totally in ruins, the massive fire in
San Francisco’s Marina District.
Loma Prieta caused 63
deaths and injured 3,700. It resulted in
about $8 billion in losses due to actual
damage or business interruptions. More
than 18,000 homes were damaged and 963
were destroyed. Another 2,500
non-residential buildings were damaged
and 147 were destroyed.
But the fact that two
California teams were playing in the
World Series was irrelevant. The Los
Angeles Dodgers and Oakland A’s battled
it out in the 1974 and 1988 World
Series. There wasn’t a damaging
earthquake -- generally, magnitude 5.5
or greater -- in the state during the
month of October in either year,
although there was a 4.8 temblor in the
San Jose area in ’88.
And for Dodgers fans
who might believe that San Francisco
reaching the World Series is a
harbinger, know this: There were no
damaging quakes in California in October
of 1962, the only other time the Giants
reached the Series since moving to San
Francisco.
“There might have
been more deaths and casualties as a
result of the Loma Prieta earthquake had
the World Series not been going on,”
Young said. “With two Bay Area teams
playing, a lot of people probably left
work early to catch the game, so the
traffic on the Bay Bridge and the Nimitz
Freeway wasn’t as heavy as usual.”
Edison Field, the
Angels’ home park and site of the first
two games of the World Series this
weekend, is located about nine miles
south of the Whittier Fault and about 10
miles north of the Newport-Inglewood
Fault. While those faults have produced
large earthquakes in the past, they have
a low recurrence rate. In other words,
studies show that the big quakes have
occurred many hundreds of years apart.
The southeastern side
of Anaheim Stadium is in Seismic Hazard
Zone -- an area designated by DOC’s
California Geological Survey as being
susceptible to liquefaction during a
large earthquake. Liquefaction occurs
when water-saturated soil is shaken and
loses its ability to support weight,
like quicksand.
The Giants’ home, Pac
Bell Park, is entirely within a
designated liquefaction zone. The San
Andreas Fault is about nine miles west
of the stadium. Major earthquakes occur
along this section of the fault about
every 200 years. The last “big one” was
the 1906 San Francisco earthquake; Loma
Prieta was much less powerful. The
Hayward Fault is about 10 miles east of
Pac Bell Park. Many scientists believe
that the Hayward is overdue for a large
earthquake. It has a recurrence rate of
150-250 years for a magnitude 7 quake,
yet the northern portion of the fault
hasn’t seen a temblor that big since the
late 1700s.
But the architects of
Pac Bell Park had earthquakes in mind
when the stadium was built. Improvements
were made to the soil on which the
stadium was built (essentially
landfill). The stadium was built in
sections that will shake independently
and not crush each other in the event of
heavy shaking. Billions of dollars have
been spent to retrofit essential
utilities and services throughout the
Bay Area since Loma Prieta.
Among other public
safety measures, Loma Prieta prompted
the Seismic Hazard Mapping Act of 1990.
DOC's California Geological Survey has
produced maps showing areas prone to the
secondary earthquake hazards of
liquefaction and landslides covering all
or parts of more than 150 communities in
six counties around Los Angeles and San
Francisco. Local governments use the
maps to regulate development. Cities and
counties can withhold permits until
geologic or soils investigations are
conducted for specific sites and
mitigation measures are incorporated
into the development plans.
The California
Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) has
also been expanded into Northern
California. The California Geological
Survey, USGS, California Institute of
Technology and the University of
California at Berkeley maintain hundreds
of seismic monitors around the state.
Within minutes of strong shaking, these
monitors allow CISN to produce ShakeMaps
that direct emergency responders to the
hardest-hit areas. Monitors on
structures – such as San Francisco City
Hall – can tell engineers how shaking
affects a structure and whether
retrofitting steps have been adequate.
“Earthquakes are
inevitable in California,” Young said.
“Through science, we are trying to
ensure that everyone is as safe as
possible, at home or the ballpark and
regardless of who you’re rooting for.”
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