Analysis of Turkey Flat Ground Motion Prediction Experiment - Lessons Learned and Implications for Practice
by Steven L. Kramer
Steven L. Kramer (2009). Analysis of Turkey Flat Ground Motion Prediction Experiment - Lessons Learned and Implications for Practice SMIP09 Seminar on Utilization of Strong-Motion Data, p. 1 - 22.
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This paper describes an investigation of the ground motions recorded at the Turkey Flat test site, and of the predictions of those motions in the blind prediction symposium that took place in 2006. The two-phase prediction experiment attracted numerous participants using several approaches to ground motion modeling and site data interpretation. The results of the Phase 1 predictions showed strong consistency in the predicted motions, but significant differences between the predicted and recorded motions. The Phase 2 predictions were also consistent and were also quite accurate. The paper reviews the basic experiment, summarizes the results of the Phase 1 and 2 predictions, examines potential explanations for the differences between the predicted and observed motions, and comments on lessons learned and implications for site response practice.