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Recorded Data and Preliminary Review of Predictions in the Turkey Flat Blind Prediction Experiment for the September 28, 2004 Parkfield Earthquake

by Anthony Shakal, Hamid Haddadi and Charles Real

Shakal, Anthony, Hamid Haddadi and Charles Real (2006). Recorded Data and Preliminary Review of Predictions in the Turkey Flat Blind Prediction Experiment for the September 28, 2004 Parkfield Earthquake SMIP06 Seminar on Utilization of Strong-Motion Data, p. 137 - 152.

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Abstract

A blind prediction experiment was conducted for the strong-motion data recorded at the Turkey Flat test area during the September 28, 2004 M>6.0 earthquake. The motion was predicted at several sites by 15 prediction teams, first based on the observed motion at the edge of the valley, and secondly, based on the observed motion in the rock underlying the valley. Predictions were received from geotechnical firms and researchers, both in the US and internationally. A workshop was held to preliminarily review and compare the predictions to each other and the recorded data. In general, the predictions based on the valley-edge motion exceed the observed data. Predicted peak ground acceleration at the center of the valley exceeded the observed by about 50% and predicted response spectra exceeded the observed by as much as 3–5 times at periods near 0.5 sec. In the second phase, involving predictions based on the recorded motion beneath the valley sediments, much closer results were obtained. In both phases, the predictions by different investigators were quite similar to each other. The use of nonlinear vs. equivalent-linear models did not significantly improve the predictions for this stiff-soil, relatively low strain motion.